Causes and Consequences of the Fall of the Al-Assad Regime

Abstract

On December 8, 2024, as a result of a lightning offensive by the Syrian opposition, the regime of the hereditary dictator B. al-Assad fell. The reasons for the inglorious end of the 54-year rule of the al-Assad family can be divided into 3 blocks: foreign policy, internal regime and opposition. In the first case, we are talking about the lack of support for B. al-Assad from the Lebanese Hezbollah weakened by Israel and the distancing of Iran and Russia from him; in the second – about a number of personal miscalculations and mistakes of the Damascus dictator himself; in the third – about the effective transformations carried out by the leader of the Islamist opposition A. al-Sharaa in the province of Idlib under his control.

The internal consequences of the overthrow of the Damascus regime include the coming to power in Syria of relatively moderate Sunni Islamists and a change in the format of still unfinished Syrian civil war. In the regional context, the most noticeable changes as a result of the fall of the al-Assad dynasty were experienced by Lebanon. The change of power in Syria deprived Hezbollah of military and financial support from Iran. As a result, this Shiite organization had to cede power to Westerners and supporters of Saudi Arabia. In turn, Iran, as a result of refusing to support B. al-Assad, had to curtail the international anti-Israeli project “Axis of Resistance”. In contrast, Turkey, Qatar and partly Kuwait significantly benefited from the fall of the Damascus regime, through their permanent support for the anti-Assad opposition.

In a non-regional context, the collapse of the B. al-Assad regime hit Russia the hardest. In turn, the European Union played the Syrian card very competently. The EU promptly suspended the energy, transport and banking sanctions of the B. al-Assad era. This step should accelerate the voluntary repatriation of Syrian refugees from Europe, ensure themoderation of A. al-Sharaa’s religious policy, and create the prerequisites for further mutually beneficial economic cooperation between Damascus and Europe.