Ліванська Республіка у 2005-2023 рр.: здобутки Кедрової революції та спадщина сирійської окупації (Частина І)
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Анотація
На момент завершення Кедрової революції у червні 2005 р., остаточно визначилися як основні її здобутки, так і основні пережитки часів сирійської гегемонії. У першому випадку йдеться про виведення сирійських військ з території Ліванської Республіки, відродження демократичного ладу в країні та часткове подолання політичного конфесіоналізму; у другому – про збереження політичного фронту орієнтованого на авторитарні Сирію та Іран, подальше функціонування воєнізованого крила Хезболли, а також збереження впливу Сирії та Ірану на ліванське внутрішньополітичне життя.
Усі ці явища й нині є невід’ємними складовими ліванських реалій. До того ж відсутність сирійської окупації та недоторканість демократичного ладу можна пояснити як сприятливою зовнішньополітичною ситуацією, так і зацікавленістю у збереженні status quo з боку більшості ліванських політичних сил з Хезболлою й Амаль включно. Набули подальшого розвитку тенденції до подолання характерного для Лівану політичного конфесіоналізму. Зокрема, починаючи з середини минулого десятиліття, у Лівані розвивається новий позаконфесійний політичний рух так званого Громадянського суспільства.
Протягом 2005-2023 рр. зазнали змін і дореволюційні пережитки. Відбулося посилення просирійсько-проіранського політичного табору, котрий, щоправда нині почав дещо здавати свої позиції. Вищезгадане посилення слід пов’язувати зі збереженням воєнізованих формувань Хезболли, котрі безпосередньо чи опосередковано використовуються з метою досягнення політичних цілей цієї партії. Нарешті, не залишалася статичною й ситуація з опосередкованою сирійською та іранською політичною присутністю. Якщо до 2011 р. першість у цьому питанні належала Сирії, то за подальшого розвитку подій вона перейшла до Ірану, котрий діє через Хезболлу. Водночас, спадковий сирійський диктатор Б. аль-Асад, по мірі зміцнення становища у власній країні, намагається поновити вплив на ліванські справи.
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