Політична та військова діяльність ліванської Хезболли у 2011-2022 рр. і її результати (Частина 2)
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Анотація
У центрі цієї статті перебуває період історії ліванської шиїтської радикальної воєнізованої проіранської організації Хезболла («Партія Аллаха»), котрий охоплює 2011-2022 рр. Йдеться про проміжок часу, що тривав від політичної реалізації Хезболлою здобутої у 2010 р. парламентської більшості до втрати нею домінуючої позиції у ліванському парламенті. Протягом 2005-2011 рр. Організація подолала шлях від реального входження до ліванських владних структур на правах опозиції до осягнення всеохоплюючого політичного домінування у країні кедрів. З цією метою Хезболлою було здійснено низку кроків: створення й очолення широкого багатопартійного та мультиконфесійного політичного блоку – Коаліції 8 березня, успішне доведення доцільності подальшого збереження воєнізованого крила організації, зміна її зовнішнього іміджу та якісне розширення соціальної бази, осягнення можливості застосовувати право вето у випадку загрози прийняття шкідливих для неї урядових рішень.
Протягом перебування на «піку» внутрішньополітичної могутності Хезболла зрештою опанувала органи законодавчої та виконавчої влади Лівану, а також підпорядкувала собі лідера потужної сунітської опозиції С. аль-Харірі. Водночас, на зовнішньополітичній арені «Партія Аллаха» набула статусу загальновизнаного регіонального актора і перетворилася з клієнта Ірану на його молодшого партнера. Проте, не зважаючи на вищенаведені переваги «Партії Аллаха», очолюваний нею політичний блок потерпів поразку на парламентських виборах 2022 р. До причин втрати Хезболлою безумовної монополії на владу необхідно віднести наступні: відмова від розробки та реалізації життєво важливих для Лівану економічних та політичних перетворень, неспроможність одночасного врахування інтересів важливих внутрішньополітичних союзників, відсутність користі для країни кедрів від зовнішньополітичних успіхів Хезболли. Хоча «Партія Аллаха» значною мірою зберегла низку важелів впливу на політику країни кедрів, проте відтепер її керівництво мусить рахуватися з внутрішньополітичними трендами ліванського суспільства.
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