Ліван – країна неіснуючих кордонів
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Анотація
Ліванська Республіка – держава з неделімітованими та недемаркованими кордонами. Йдеться про сухопутні та морські кордони з Сирією й Ізраїлем, а також розмежування виключної (морської) економічної зони з Сирією та Республікою Кіпр. Єдиний виняток становить технічне визначення рубежу між виключними економічними зонами Лівану й Ізраїлю.
Причини такого стану речей мають комплексну природу й охоплюють три групи чинників: політично-інституційну (наявність перманентної напруженості у стосунках з обома безпосередніми сусідами, багатоконфесійність ліванського суспільства, слабкість центральної влади, велике значення впливу зовнішніх і позадержавних акторів, економічно-безпекову (процвітання у прикордонних районах масштабної різнопланової контрабанди., котра виступає як одне з вагомих джерел насичення внутрішнього товарного та фінансового ринку й об’єктом різнорівневого політичного лобіювання) і міжнародно-правову (асиметричність договірних зобов’язань, відсутність ефективних механізмів реалізації рішень ООН, а також відмінне розуміння поняття «кордон» у кожної із зацікавлених сторін).
Нові можливості для переговорів стосовно ліванських кордонів визначилися завдяки низці взаємопов’язаних змін, що мали місце в левантійському субрегіоні у 2024-2025 рр. Йдеться про відчутну поразку ліванської Хезболли у війні з Ізраїлем і кардинальне владне перезавантаження у Бейруті та Дамаску. Проте, з огляду на збереження впливу вищеокреслених чинників, можна говорити лише про ймовірність часткових позитивних зрушень. Маються на увазі: остаточне розмежування ліванської економічної зони з Кіпром і Сирією, ймовірну делімітацію морського кордону з останньою, а також – можливість початку дуже непростого процесу делімітації сухопутного лівансько-сирійського кордону. Станом на сьогодні, категорично нездоланні перешкоди зберігаються лише у випадку подальшого прикордонного врегулювання з Ізраїлем.
Завантаження
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